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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/2019| Method for Active Pandemic Curve Management (MAPCM) | |
| Willem G Odendaal. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.04.06.20055699 | |
| The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 prompted stringent mitigation measures to "flatten the curve" quickly leading to an asphyxiated US economy as a national side effect. The resulting flattened curve remain exponential and may still exceed available healthcare resources and capacity during and around its peak. Moreover, while isolation and containment can scale down daily cases significantly, such a mitigation strategy also prolong the outbreak. Since economic activity is inversely proportional to mitigation, curtailing the outbreak with sustained mitigation can stifle the economy severely having disasterous repercussions. Mitigation for the duration of the outbreak may therefore be unsustainable and risk a second wave of infections. The method for active pandemic curve management (MAPCM) presented herein has the potential to shape the outbreak curve in a controlled manner for optimal utilization of healthcare resources during the pandemic, while drastically shortening the outbreak duration compared to mitigation by itself without trading off lives. This method allows mitigation measures to be relaxed gradually from day one, which equates to the ramping up of economic activity, and it leaves breathing room for the economy from the onset of a pandemic. Since outbreak curves (such as projected hospitalizations per day) can be programmed using this method, they can also be shaped to accommodate changing needs during the outbreak. To be successful the method must be implemented early enough in the outbreak. Implementing the method incorrectly can result in a herd immunity levels of infections. MAPCM is a method and not a model. It is compatible with any appropriate model. In the paper a hybrid logistic model is used for illustration. | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.06.20055699v2.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| 1100925.pdf | 3.67 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |