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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/200| Estimation of local novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in Wuhan, China from off-site reported cases and population flow data from different sources | |
| Lin Yang Shu Yang Zian Zhuang Peihua Cao Yijun Lou Weiming Wang Shi Zhao Daihai He | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.02.20030080 | |
| Backgrounds: In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pneumonia hit Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and spread to the rest of China and overseas. The emergence of this virus coincided with the Spring Festival Travel Rush in China. It is possible to estimate total number of cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan, by 23 January 2020, given the cases reported in other cities and population flow data between cities. Methods: We built a model to estimate the total number of cases in Wuhan by 23 January 2020, based on the number of cases detected outside Wuhan city in China, with the assumption that if the same screening effort used in other cities applied in Wuhan. We employed population flow data from different sources between Wuhan and other cities/regions by 23 January 2020. The number of total cases was determined by the maximum log likelihood estimation. Findings: From overall cities/regions data, we predicted 1326 (95% CI: 1177, 1484), 1151 (95% CI: 1018, 1292) and 5277 (95% CI: 4732, 5859) as total cases in Wuhan by 23 January 2020, based on different source of data from Changjiang Daily newspaper, Tencent, and Baidu. From separate cities/regions data, we estimated 1059 (95% CI: 918, 1209), 5214 (95% CI: 4659, 5808) as total cases in Wuhan in Wuhan by 23 January 2020, based on different sources of population flow data from Tencent and Baidu. Conclusion: Sources of population follow data and methods impact the estimates of local cases in Wuhan before city lock down. Keyword: COVID-19; mobility; pneumonia; transportation; outbreaks ### Competing Interest Statement DH was supported by an Alibaba-Hong Kong Polytechnic University Collaborative Research project. Other authors declare no competing interests. ### Funding Statement DH was supported by General Research Fund (15205119) of Research Grants Council of Hong Kong and an Ablibaba (China)- Hong Kong Polytechnic University Collaborative Research project. WW was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Number 61672013) and Huaian Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention (Grant Number HAP201704), Huaian, Jiangsu, China. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes We used publicly available data only. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.02.20030080v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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