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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/195| Impact assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 and influenza in Hong Kong: an observational study | |
| Benjamin J Cowling Susan S. Chiu Joseph T. Wu Peng Wu Gabriel M. Leung Sheikh Taslim Ali Tiffany W. Y. Ng Tim K Tsang Julian C. M Li Min Whui Fong Qiuyan Liao Mike YW Kwan So Lun Lee | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.12.20034660 | |
| Background: A range of public health measures have been implemented to delay and reduce local transmission of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, and there have been major changes in behaviours of the general public. We examined the effect of these interventions and behavioral changes on the incidence of COVID-19 as well as on influenza virus infections which may share some aspects of transmission dynamics with COVID-19. Methods: We reviewed policy interventions and measured changes in population behaviours through two telephone surveys, on January 20-23 and February 11-14. We analysed data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, influenza surveillance data in outpatients of all ages, and influenza hospitalisations in children. We estimated the daily effective reproduction number (R_t), for COVID-19 and influenza A(H1N1). Findings: COVID-19 transmissibility has remained at or below 1, indicating successful containment to date. Influenza transmission declined substantially after the implementation of social distancing measures and changes in population behaviours in late January, with a 44% (95% confidence interval, CI: 34% to 53%) reduction in transmissibility in the community, and a 33% (95% CI: 24% to 43%) reduction in transmissibility based on paediatric hospitalization rates. In the two surveys we estimated that 74.5% and 97.5% of the general adult population wore masks when going out, and 61.3% and 90.2% avoided going to crowded places, respectively. Implications: Containment measures, social distancing measures and changes in population behaviour have successfully prevented spread of COVID-19. The social distancing measures and behavioural changes led to a substantial reduction in influenza transmission in early February 2020. However, it may be challenging to avoid fatigue and sustain these measures and population behaviours as COVID-19 continues to spread globally. Funding: Health and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong ### Competing Interest Statement BJC reports honoraria from Sanofi Pasteur and Roche. The authors report no other potential conflicts of interest. ### Funding Statement This project was supported by a commissioned grant from the Health and Medical Research Fund, Food and Health Bureau, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Data are available from the first author on request | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.12.20034660v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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