Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem:
http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/193| A Note on COVID-19 Diagnosis Number Prediction Model in China | |
| Yi Li Xianhong Yin Meng Liang Xiaoyu Liu Meng Hao Yi Wang | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.19.20025262 | |
| Importance: To predict the diagnosed COVID-19 patients and the trend of the epidemic in China. It may give the public some scientific information to ease the fear of the epidemic. Objective: In December 2019, pneumonia infected with the novel coronavirus burst in Wuhan, China. We aimed to use a mathematical model to predict number of diagnosed patients in future to ease anxiety on the emergent situation. Design: According to all diagnosis number from WHO website and combining with the transmission mode of infectious diseases, the mathematical model was fitted to predict future trend of outbreak. Setting: Our model was based on the epidemic situation in China, which could provide referential significance for disease prediction in other countries, and provide clues for prevention and intervention of relevant health authorities. Participants: In this retrospective, all diagnosis number from Jan 21 to Feb 10, 2020 reported from China was included and downloaded from WHO website. Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s): We develop a simple but accurate formula to predict the next day diagnosis number:N_i/N_(i-1) =[(N_(i-1)/N_(i-2) )]^α，where Ni is the total diagnosed patient till the ith day, and α was estimated as 0.904 at Feb 10. Results: Based on this model, it is predicted that the rate of disease infection will decrease exponentially. The total number of infected people is limited; thus, the disease will have limited impact. However, new diagnosis will last to March. Conclusions and Relevance: Through the establishment of our model, we can better predict the trend of the epidemic in China. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement No funding. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes In this retrospective, all diagnosis number from Jan 21 to Feb 10, 2020 reported from China was included and downloaded from WHO website. <https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.19.20025262v2 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
Cargar archivos:
| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| A note on COVID.pdf | 330.5 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |