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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/191| Modelling the epidemic 2019-nCoV event in Italy: a preliminary note | |
| Carla Caponi Giuseppe Vittorio De Socio Marco Claudio Traini | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.14.20034884 | |
| An analysis of the time evolution of the 2019-nCoV outbreak event in Italy is proposed and is based on the preliminary data at disposal (till March 11th, 2020) on one side, and on an epidemiological model recently used to describe the same epidemic event in the Wuhan region (February 2020) on the other side. The equations of the model include the description of compartments like Susceptible (S), exposed (E), infectious but not yet symptomatic (pre-symptomatic) (A), infectious with symptoms (I), hospitalized (H) and recovered (R). Further stratification includes quarantined susceptible (Sq), isolated exposed (Eq) and isolated infected (Iq) compartments. The equations are numerically solved for boundary (initial) conditions tuned on the Italian event. The role of quarantine is specifically emphasized and supports the strategies adopted providing a numerical description of the effects. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement No Funding received for the present research ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes data from the national site of Health Minister http://www.salute.gov.it/nuovocoronavirus <http://www.salute.gov.it/nuovocoronavirus> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.14.20034884v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Modelling the epidemic 2019.pdf | 550.08 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |