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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/190| Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China | |
| Yun Qiu Xi Chen Wei Shi | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.13.20035238 | |
| This paper examines the role of various socioeconomic factors in mediating the local and cross-city transmissions of the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) in China. We implement a machine learning approach to select instrumental variables that strongly predict virus transmission among the rich exogenous weather characteristics. Our 2SLS estimates show that the stringent quarantine, massive lockdown and other public health measures imposed in late January significantly reduced the transmission rate of COVID-19. By early February, the virus spread had been contained. While many socioeconomic factors mediate the virus spread, a robust government response since late January played a determinant role in the containment of the virus. We also demonstrate that the actual population flow from the outbreak source poses a higher risk to the destination than other factors such as geographic proximity and similarity in economic conditions. The results have rich implications for ongoing global efforts in containment of COVID-19. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement Qiu and Shi acknowledge the support from the 111 Project (Grant No.B18026). Chen acknowledges the following three funding sources: US PEPPER Center Scholar Award (P30AG021342) and NIH/NIA grants (R03AG048920; K01AG053408). Shi acknowledges the support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.71803062) and the Ministry of Education of China (Grant No.18YJC790138). ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Data on the daily number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases at the city level in China are collected from the websites of provincial health commissions of China. Data on the daily weather characteristics are collected from the NOAA website. Data on the daily population flow intensity index from Wuhan to other cities are collected from the Baidu website. All these data are publicly available. The city-level characteristics are collected from China City Statistical Yearbooks. <https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/> <http://qianxi.baidu.com/?from=groupmessage> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.20035238v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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