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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/189| A Cybernetics-based Dynamic Infection Model for Analyzing SARS-COV-2 Infection Stability and Predicting Uncontrollable Risks | |
| Qiang Liu J Huan Pengpeng Sun Liuquan Wang Chenxin Zang Sanying Zhu Liansheng Gao Wenlei Xiao | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.13.20034082 | |
| Since December 2019, COVID-19 has raged in Wuhan and subsequently all over China and the world. We propose a Cybernetics-based Dynamic Infection Model (CDIM) to the dynamic infection process with a probability distributed incubation delay and feedback principle. Reproductive trends and the stability of the SARS-COV-2 infection in a city can then be analyzed, and the uncontrollable risks can be forecasted before they really happen. The infection mechanism of a city is depicted using the philosophy of cybernetics and approaches of the control engineering. Distinguished with other epidemiological models, such as SIR, SEIR, etc., that compute the theoretical number of infected people in a closed population, CDIM considers the immigration and emigration population as system inputs, and administrative and medical resources as dynamic control variables. The epidemic regulation can be simulated in the model to support the decision-making for containing the outbreak. City case studies are demonstrated for verification and validation. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement No funding ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All raw data are collected from web. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.20034082v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| A cybernetics based.pdf | 2.83 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |