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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/1836| A simple statistical physics model for the epidemic with incubation period | |
| David B. Saakian. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.05778v1.pdf | |
| Based on the classical SIR model, we derive a simple modification for the dynamics of epidemics with a known incubation period of infection. The model is described by a system of integro-differential equations. Parameters of our model directly related to epidemiological data. We derive some analytical results, as well as perform numerical simulations. We use the proposed model to analyze COVID-19 epidemic data in Armenia. We propose a strategy: organize a quarantine, and then conduct extensive testing of risk groups during the quarantine, evaluating the percentage of the population among risk groups and people with symptoms. | |
| arxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.05778v1.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| 1100858.pdf | 109.13 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |