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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/175| COVID-19: Forecasting short term hospital needs in France | |
| Clément Massonnaud Jonathan Roux Pascal Crépey | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.16.20036939 | |
| Europe is now considered as the epicenter of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, France being among the most impacted country. In France, there is an increasing concern regarding the capacity of the healthcare system to sustain the outbreak, especially regarding intensive care units (ICU). The aim of this study was to estimate the dynamics of the epidemic in France, and to assess its impact on healthcare resources for each French metropolitan Region. We developed a deterministic, age-structured, Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model based on catchment areas of each COVID-19 referral hospitals. We performed one month ahead predictions (up to April 14, 2020) for three different scenarios (R0=1.5, R0=2.25, R0=3), where we estimated the daily number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths, the needs in ICU beds per Region and the reaching date of ICU capacity limits. At the national level, the total number of infected cases is expected to range from 22,872 in the best case (R0=1.5) to 161,832 in the worst case (R0=3), while the total number of deaths would vary from 1,021 to 11,032, respectively. At the regional level, all ICU capacities may be overrun in the worst scenario. Only seven Regions may lack ICU beds in the mild scenario (R0=2.25) and only one in the best case. In the three scenarios, Corse may be the first Region to see its ICU capacities overrun. The two other Regions, whose capacity will be overrun shortly after are Grand-Est and Bourgogne-Franche-Comté. Our analysis shows that, even in the best case scenario, the French healthcare system will very soon be overwhelmed. While drastic social distancing measures may temper our results, a massive reorganization leading to an expansion of French ICU capacities seems to be necessary to manage the coming wave of critically affected COVID-19 patients. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement The study was funded by the French national research agency (ANR) through the SPHINx (Spread of Pathogens on Healthcare Institutions Networks) project. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data and source code are available upon request. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.16.20036939v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| COVID-19 Forecasting.pdf | 1.59 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |