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Metamorphosis of COVID-19 Pandemic
Farhan Saif
Acceso Abierto
Generalised growth model
Generalised Richard model
We show phase-wise growth of COVID 19 pandemic and explain it by comparing real time data with Discrete Generalized Growth model and Discrete Generalized Richard Model. The comparison of COVID 19 is made for China, Italy, Japan and the USA. The mathematical techniques makes it possible to calculate the rate of exponential growth of active cases, estimates the size of the outbreak, and measures the deviation from the exponential growth indicating slowing down e ect. The phase-wise pandemic evolution following the real time data of active cases de nes the impact-point when the preventive steps, taken to eradicate the pandemic, becomes e ective. The study is important to devise the measures to handle emerging threat of similar COVID-19 outbreaks in other countries, especially in the absence of a medicine.
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Epidemia COVID-19
Appears in Collections:Artículos científicos

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