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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/168| Trend analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic in China and the rest of the world | |
| Albertine Weber Flavio Iannelli Sebastian Goncalves | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.19.20037192 | |
| The recent epidemic of Coronavirus (COVID-19) that started in China has already been "exported" to more than 140 countries in all the continents, evolving in most of them by local spreading. In this contribution we analyze the trends of the cases reported in all the Chinese provinces, as well as in some countries that, until March 15th, 2020, have more than 500 cases reported. Notably and differently from other epidemics, the provinces did not show an exponential phase. The data available at the Johns Hopkins University site seem to fit well an algebraic sub-exponential growing behavior as was pointed out recently. All the provinces show a clear and consistent pattern of slowing down with growing exponent going nearly zero, so it can be said that the epidemic was contained in China. On the other side, the more recent spread in countries like, Italy, Iran, and Spain show a clear exponential growth, as well as other European countries. Even more recently, US -which was one of the first countries to have an individual infected outside China (Jan 21st, 2020)- seems to follow the same path. We calculate the exponential growth of the most affected countries, showing the evolution along time after the first local case. We identify clearly different patterns in the analyzed data and we give interpretations and possible explanations for them. The analysis and conclusions of our study can help countries that, after importing some cases, are not yet in the local spreading phase, or have just started ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement SG acknowledges CAPES for support, under fellowship #003/2019 - PROPG - PRINT/UFRGS ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All the data used in this study is available at the Data Repository by Center for Systems Science and Engineering of the Johns Hopkins University: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19\_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_19-covid-Confirmed.csv | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.19.20037192v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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|---|---|---|---|
| Trend analysis of the COVID.pdf | 1 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |