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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/164| A model for COVID-19 prediction in Iran based on China parameters | |
| Bushra Zareie Amin Roshani Ghobad Moradi Mohammad Ali Mansournia Mohammad Aziz Rasouli | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.19.20038950 | |
| Background: The rapid spread of COVID-19 virus from China to other countries and outbreaks of disease require an epidemiological analysis of the disease in the shortest time and an increased awareness of effective interventions. The purpose of this study was to estimate the COVID-19 epidemic in Iran based on the SIR model. The results of the analysis of the epidemiological data of Iran from January 22 to March 8, 2020 were investigated and the prediction was made until March 29, 2020. Methods: By estimating the three parameters of time-dependent transmission rate, time-dependent recovery rate, and time-dependent mortality rate from Covid-19 outbreak in China, and using the number of Covid-19 infections in Iran, we predicted the number of patients for the next month in Iran. Each of these parameters was estimated using GAM models. All analyses were conducted in R software using the mgcv package. Findings: On average, 925 people with COVID-19 are expected to be infected daily in Iran. The epidemic peaks within one week (15.03.2020 to 03.21.2020) and reaches its highest point on 03.18.2020 with 1126 infected cases. Conclusion: The most important point is to emphasize the timing of the epidemic peak, hospital readiness, government measures and public readiness to reduce social contact. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This study was funded by Vice Chancellor for Research and Technology of Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran. The funding body played no role in the design of the study, collection, analysis, or interpretation of data or in writing the manuscript. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes We statement regarding the availability of all data referred to in the manuscript and note links below. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038950v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| A model for COVID.pdf | 746.14 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |