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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/154| Estimating the ascertainment rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan, China: implications for management of the global outbreak | |
| Georgios Panagiotakopoulos Sotirios Tsiodras Theodore Lytras | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.24.20042218 | |
| We sought to estimate the ascertainment ratio of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan, China, using a modified Bayesian SEIR model with publicly reported case data. We estimated it at 0.465% (95%CI: 0.464-0.466%), implying that the outbreak in Wuhan was abated by depletion of susceptibles, rather than public health action alone. This suggests a high-transmissibility/low-severity profile for the current pandemic and raises doubt about whether suppression, rather than mitigation, is a feasible goal. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement No funding was received for this work ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data and code are publicly available on GitHub <https://github.com/thlytras/nCoVasc> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042218v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Estimating the ascertainment rate.pdf | 177.83 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |