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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/152| Epidemiological Tools that Predict Partial Herd Immunity to SARS Coronavirus 2 | |
| Yasuhiko Kamikubo Atsushi Takahashi | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.25.20043679 | |
| The outbreak of SARS coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which occurred in Wuhan, China in December 2019, has caused a worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, there is a lack of epidemiological tools to guide effective public policy development. Here we present epidemiological evidence that SARS-CoV-2 S type exited Wuhan or other epicenters in China earlier than L type and conferred partial resistance to the virus on infected populations. Analysis of regional disparities in incidence has revealed that a sharp decline in influenza epidemics is a useful surrogate indicator for the undocumented spread of SARS-CoV-2. The biggest concern in the world is knowing when herd immunity has been achieved and scheduling a time to regain the living activities of each country. This study provides a useful tool to guide the development of local policies to contain the virus. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This work was supported by Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (KAKENHI; 17H03597 and 16K14632) from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Data are available on request. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20043679v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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