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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/146| Modeling and Forecasting Trend of COVID-19 Epidemic in Iran | |
| Yasin Fadaei Fereydoon Rahmani Ali Ahmadi Majid Shirani | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.17.20037671 | |
| Background: COVID-19 is an emerging disease and precise data are not available in the world and Iran. this study aimed to determine the epidemic trend and prediction of COVID-19 in Iran. Methods: This study is a secondary data analysis and modeling. We used the daily reports of definitive COVID-19 patients (sampling of severe cases and hospitalization) released by Iran Ministry of Health and Medical Education. Epidemic projection models of Gompertz, Von Bertalanffy and least squared error (LSE) were used to predict the number of cases at April 3, 2020 until May 13, 2020. Results: R0 in Iran was estimated to be 4.7 that has now fallen to below 2. Given the three different scenarios, the prediction of the patients on April 3, 2020 by Von Bertalanffy, Gompertz and LSE were estimated at 48200, 52500 and 58000, respectively. The number of deceased COVID-19 patients was also estimated to be 3600 individuals using the Von growth model, 4200 ones by Gompertz's model and 4850 ones according to the LSE method. To predict and estimate the number of patients and deaths in the end of epidemic based on Von and Gompertz models, we will have 87000 cases, 4900 and 11000 deaths until 13 May and 1 June, respectively. Conclusion: The process of controlling the epidemic is tangible. If enforcement and public behavior interventions continue with current trends, the control and reduction of the COVID-19 epidemic in Iran will be flat from April 28, until July, 2020 and new cases are expected to decline from the following Iranian new year. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This study was financially supported by the Deputy of Research and Technology of Shahrekord University of Medical Science, Shahrekord, Iran (grant no.254). this research proposal approved by Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences (Code of Ethics Committee on Biological Research IR.SKUMS.REC 1398.254) ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes https://mhrc.skums.ac.ir/Index.aspx?page_=form&lang=1&sub=55&tempname=rcmh&PageID=22976&isPopUp=False <http://ethics.research.ac.ir/ProposalCertificateEn.php?id=124057&Print=true&NoPrintHeader=true&NoPrintFooter=true&NoPrintPageBorder=true&LetterPrint=true> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037671v3 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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