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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/143| Initial Simulation of SARS-CoV2 Spread and Intervention Effects in the Continental US | |
| Sen Pei Jeffrey Shaman | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.21.20040303 | |
| Here we use a metapopulation model applied at county resolution to simulate the spread and growth of COVID-19 incidence in the continental United States. We calibrate the model against county-level incidence data collected between February 21, 2020 and March 13, 2020, and estimate epidemiological parameters including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness1. Using the calibrated model, we project the outbreak in the continental US for 180 days after March 13, 2020, and evaluate the effects of social distancing and travel restrictions on the outbreak. ### Competing Interest Statement JS and Columbia University disclose partial ownership of SK Analytics. JS also discloses consulting for Merck and BNI. ### Funding Statement This work was supported by US NIH grant GM110748 and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Contract Number: W911NF-16-2-0035. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, the National Institutes of Health or the Department of Defense ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Data are all publicly posted on Github and via the NY Times. <http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3722660> <https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.21.20040303v2 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Initial simulation of SARS-COV2.pdf | 318.89 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |