Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem:
http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/141| Assessing the Global Tendency of COVID-19 Outbreak | |
| Qinghe Liu Zhicheng Liu Junkai Zhu Deqiang Li Zefei Gao Liuling Zhou Junyan Yang Yuhao Zhu Qiao Wang | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.18.20038224 | |
| COVID-19 is now widely spreading around the world as a global pandemic, whereas it had been effecitvely under control in China by March 15. In this report, we estimate the global tendency of COVID-19 and analyze the associated global epidemic risk, given that the status quo is continued without further measures being taken. The results show that the global R_0, excluding China, is estimated to be 2.48 (95% CI: 1.60 -4.33). The United States, Germany, Italy, Spain, have peak values over 50,000. And the peak arrival time of all these countries is after Apr. 15, 2020. We predict that there are four regional clusters of the outbreak: Southeast Asia extending southward to Oceania, the Middle East, Western Europe and North America. Among them, Western Europe will become the major center of the outbreak. The peak values in Germany, Italy and Spain are estimated to be 98,893, 156,857 and 65,082, respectively. The U.S. is the country with the most serious outbreak trend. Based on the current situation of intervention measures, the peak value in the U.S. will reach 267,324. Above all, if the current policy environment is maintained, the cumulative number of patients worldwide will be 1,225,059 (95% CI: 486,934 -4,533,392). ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement No funding support ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All the data are available from the official networks. <https://www.who.int/> <https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/> <http://www.nhc.gov.cn/> <https://bluehub.jrc.ec.europa.eu/migration/app/> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.18.20038224v2 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
Cargar archivos:
| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Assessing the Global tendency.pdf | 1.3 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |