Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem:
http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/139| Estimating the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Iran using epidemic modeling | |
| Samaneh Sartoli Ebrahim Sahafizadeh | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.20.20038422 | |
| Background: As reported by Iranian governments, the first cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) infections confirmed in Qom, Iran on February 19, 2020 (30 Bahman 1398). The number of identified cases afterward increased rapidly and the novel coronavirus spread to all provinces of the country. This study aimed to fit an epidemic model to the reported cases data to estimate the basic reproduction number (R_0) of COVID-19 in Iran. Methods: We used data from February 21, 2020, to March 18, 2020, on the number of cases reported by Iranian governments and we employed the SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Removed) epidemic spreading model to fit the transmission model to the reported cases data by tuning the parameters in order to estimate the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Iran. Results: The value of reproduction number was estimated 4.86 in the first week and 4.5 in the second and decreasing from 4.29 to 2.1 in the third and fourth weeks. Conclusions: The results indicate that the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 is significantly larger than one. Based on the results, it is necessary to implement social distancing and a strict restriction on travelling to control the outbreak especially on Nowruz (Persian New Year). ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement The authors received no specific funding for this work. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Information related to the study is in the manuscript | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.20.20038422v2 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
Cargar archivos:
| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estimating the reproduction.pdf | 123.92 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |