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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/138| Dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic at constant and time-dependent contact rates | |
| Tomasz Lipniacki Marek Kochanczyk Frederic Grabowski | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.13.20035485 | |
| We constructed a simple Susceptible-Infected-Infectious-Excluded model of the spread of COVID-19. The model is parametrised only by the average incubation period, τ, and two rate parameters: contact rate, r_E, and exclusion rate, r_E. The rates can be manipulated by non-therapeutic interventions and determine the basic reproduction number, R = r_C/r_E, and, together with τ, the daily multiplication coefficient at the early exponential phase, β. Initial β determines the reduction of r_C required to contain epidemic spread. In the long-term, we consider a scenario based on typical social behaviours, in which r_C first decreases in response to a surge of daily new cases, forcing people to self-isolate, and then slowly increases when people gradually accept higher risk. Consequently, initial abrupt epidemic spread is followed by a plateau and slow regression. This scenario, although economically and socially devastating, will grant time to develop, produce, and distribute a vaccine, or at least limit daily cases to a manageable number. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This study was supported by the National Science Centre (Poland) grant 2018/29/B/NZ2/00668 ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Data referred in the manuscript are available at JHU CSSE, https://systems.jhu.edu/research/ public-health/ncov, accessed: 2020-03-20 and https://ourworldindata.org/ covid-testing, accessed: 2020-03-20 <http://pmbm.ippt.pan.pl/model/covid19> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.20035485v2 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Dynamics of COVID.pdf | 532.33 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |