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COVID-19 Modelling: the Effects of Social Distancing
Oliva Bendtsen Cano
Sabrina Cano Morales
Claus Bendtsen
Novel Coronavirus
Acceso Abierto
Atribución
10.1101/2020.03.29.20046870
The purpose of this article is to reach all those who find it difficult to become well informed about the repercussions of a lockdown strategy to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic and to spark discussion and thought. Here we use simple stochastic simulations to evaluate different approaches taken to tackle the crisis, along with the efficiency they will hold and the number of casualties they may incur. It is clear that the less strict the social distancing the more time it will take for life to return to normal, and the more lives will be at risk. This is shown through simulations formed by an open sourced code, which allows evaluation of the outcomes from different intervention scenarios or conditions. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement no external funding was received ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes all data to reproduce the results in the manuscript are included as supplementary material
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
2020
Preimpreso
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.29.20046870v1
Inglés
VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS
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