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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/134| Short-term forecasts and long-term mitigation evaluations for the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei Province, China | |
| Xiaolong Guo Caterina M Scoglio Hongyu Wu Lee W Cohnstaedt Aram Vajdi Chunlin Yi Qihui Yang | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.27.20045625 | |
| As an emerging infectious disease, the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has developed into a global pandemic. During the initial spreading of the virus in China, we demonstrated the ensemble Kalman filter performed well as a short-term predictor of the daily cases reported in Wuhan City. Second, we used an individual-level network-based model to reconstruct the epidemic dynamics in Hubei Province at its early stage and examine the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the epidemic spreading with various scenarios. Our simulation results show that without continued control measures, the epidemic in Hubei Province could have become persistent. Only by continuing to decrease the infection rate through 1) protective measures and 2) social distancing can the actual epidemic trajectory that happened in Hubei Province be reconstructed in simulation. Finally, we simulate the COVID-19 transmission with non-Markovian processes and show how these models produce different epidemic trajectories, compared to those obtained with Markov processes. Since recent studies show that COVID-19 epidemiological parameters do not follow exponential distributions leading to Markov processes, future works need to focus on non-Markovian models to better capture the COVID-19 spreading trajectories. In addition, shortening the infectious period via early case identification and isolation can slow the epidemic spreading significantly. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement None ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data generated or analysed during this study are included in this manuscript. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20045625v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| shor term forecasts.pdf | 991.75 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |