Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem:
http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/133| Elementary time-delay dynamics of COVID-19 disease | |
| Jose Menendez | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.27.20045328 | |
| An elementary model of COVID-19 dynamics, based on time-delay differential equations with a step-like survival function, is shown to be in good agreement with data from China and South Korea. The time-delal approach overcomes the major limitation of standard Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) models based on ordinary differential equations, namely their inability to predict the observed curve of infected individuals as a function of time. The model is also applied to countries where the epidemic is in earlier stages, such as Italy and Spain, to obtain estimates of the total number of cases and peak number of infected people that might be observed. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Clinical Trial Not applicable ### Funding Statement No external funding was utilized to carry out this work. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Analyzed data is publicly avaialable from numerous databases and even reputable newspapers. The code used to analyzed the data is described in the manuscript and freely available from the author upon request. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20045328v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
Cargar archivos:
| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| elementary time delay.pdf | 592.99 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |