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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/131| Dispersion of a new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 by airlines in 2020: Temporal estimates of the outbreak in Mexico. | |
| Gustavo Cruz-Pacheco Fernando J Bustamante-Castaneda Jean Guy Caputo Maria Eugenia Jimenez-Corona Samuel Ponce-de-Leon | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.24.20042168 | |
| On January 23, 2020, China imposed a quarantine on the city of Wuhan to contain the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. Regardless of this measure the new infection has spread to several countries around the world. Here, we developed a method to study the dissemination of this infection by the airline routes and we give estimations of the time of arrival of the outbreaks to the different cities. In this work we show an analysis of the dispersion of this infection to other cities by airlines based on the classic model the Kermack and McKendrick complemented with diffusion on a graph composed of nodes which represent the cities and edges which represent the airline routes. We do several numerical simulations to estimate the date of arrival to different cities starting the infection at Wuhan, China and to show the robustness of the estimation respect to changes in the epidemiological parameters and to changes on the graph. We use Mexico City as an example. In this case, our estimate of the arrival time is between March 20 and March 30, 2020. This analysis is limited to the analysis of dispersion by airlines, so this estimate should be taken as an overestimate since the infection can arrive by other means. This model estimates the arrival of the infectious outbreak to Mexico between March 20 and March 30. This estimation gives a time period to implement and strengthen preventive measures aimed at the general population, as well as to strengthen hospital infrastructure and training of human resources in health. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This work was done without public or private funds ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All the data used in this work are of public access. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042168v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| dispersion of a new coronavirus.pdf | 285.68 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |