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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/126| Why estimating population-based case fatality rates during epidemics may be misleading | |
| Lucas Böttcher Mingtao Xia Tom Chou | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.26.20044693 | |
| Different ways of calculating mortality ratios during epidemics can yield widely different results, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. We formulate both a survival probability model and an associated infection duration-dependent SIR model to define individual- and population-based estimates of dynamic mortality ratios. The key parameters that affect the dynamics of the different mortality estimates are the incubation period and the length of time individuals were infected before confirmation of infection. We stress that none of these ratios are accurately represented by the often misinterpreted case fatality ratio (CFR), the number of deaths to date divided by the total number of infected cases to date. Using available data on the recent SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks and simple assumptions, we estimate and compare the different dynamic mortality ratios and highlight their differences. Informed by our modeling, we propose a more systematic method to determine mortality ratios during epidemic outbreaks and discuss sensitivity to confounding effects and errors in the data. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement LB acknowledges financial support from the SNF Early Postdoc.Mobility fellowship on ``Multispecies interacting stochastic systems in biology''. The authors also acknowledge financial support from the Army Research Office (W911NF-18-1-0345), the NIH (R01HL146552), and the National Science Foundation (DMS-1814364). ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes The datasets that we used in this study are stored in the publicly accessible repositories of Refs. [3, 5, 16]. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044693v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| why estimating population.pdf | 1.51 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |