Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
Temperature dependence of COVID-19 transmission
Alessio Notari
Novel Coronavirus
Acceso Abierto
The recent coronavirus pandemic follows in its early stages an almost exponential expansion, with the number of cases N reasonably well fit by N eαt, in many countries. We analyze the rate α in 25 different countries, choosing as a starting point in each country the first day with 30 cases and fitting for the following 12 days, capturing thus the early exponential growth in a rather homogeneous way. We look for a link between the rate α and the average temperature T of each country, in the month of the epidemic growth. Fitting with a linear behavior α(T), we find evidence for a decreasing growth rate as a function of T. However, a decrease in the growth rate is visible also in the very low-T data. Going beyond a linear model, a peak at about (9.5±2.6)°C seems to be present in the data. Our findings give hope that, for northern hemisphere countries, the growth rate should significantly decrease as a result of both warmer weather and lockdown policies. In general the propagation should be hopefully stopped by strong lockdown, testing and tracking policies, before the arrival of the next cold season. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement No external funding was received. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Data are publicly available. <>
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Appears in Collections:Artículos científicos

Upload archives

File SizeFormat 
temperature dependence.pdf597.38 kBAdobe PDFView/Open