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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/110| Estimating the risk of COVID-19 death during the course of the outbreak in Korea, February-March, 2020 | |
| Eunha Shim Kenji Mizumoto Wongyeong Choi Gerardo Chowell | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.30.20048264 | |
| Background: In Korea, a total of 8,799 confirmed cases of COVID-19 including 102 deaths have been recorded as of Mar 21, 2020. The time-delay adjusted case fatality risk of COVID-19 in Korea is yet to be estimated. Methods: We obtained the daily series of confirmed cases and deaths in Korea reported prior to March 21,2020. Using statistical methods, we estimated the time-delay adjusted risk for death from COVID-19 in the city of Daegu, Gyeongsangbuk-do, other regions in Korea, as well as for the entire country. Results: Our model-based crude CFR fitted the observed data well throughout the course of the epidemic except for the very early stage in Gyeongsangbuk-do, partially due to the reporting delay. Our estimates of the risk for death in Gyeongsangbuk-do reached 2.4% (95% CrI: 1.6-3.4%), 1.3% (95% CrI: 1.0-1.6%) in Daegu and 0.7% (95% CrI: 0.3-1.4%) in other regions, whereas the national estimate of the risk for death was estimated at 1.4% (95% CrI: 1.2-1.7%) in Korea. Conclusions: The relatively low CFRs are associated with the early implementation of public health interventions including widespread testing, social distancing, and delayed school openings in Korea. Geographic differences in CFR are likely influenced by clusters of nosocomial transmission. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) [No. 2018R1C1B6001723] to ES and WC. KM acknowledges support from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI Grant Number 15K20936, from Program for Advancing Strategic International Networks to Accelerate the Circulation of Talented Researchers Grant Number G2801 and from the Leading Initiative for Excellent Young Researchers from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sport, Science & Technology of Japan. GC acknowledges support from NSF grant 1414374 as part of the joint NSF-NIH-USDA Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases program, and UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council grant [BB/M008894/1]. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Data are publicly available. <https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20048264v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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