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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/109| Forecasting the CoViD19 Diffusion in Italy and the Related Occupancy of Intensive Care Units | |
| Livio Fenga | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.30.20047894 | |
| This paper provides a model based method for the forecast of the total number of currently CoVoD19 positive individuals and of the occupancy of the available Intensive Care Units in Italy. The predictions obtained, for a time horizon of 10 days starting from March 29th, will be provided at a national as well as at a more disaggregate levels, following a criterion based on the magnitude of the phenomenon. While the Regions which have been hit the most by the pandemic have been kept separated, the less affected ones have been aggregated into homogeneous macroareas. Results show that , within the forecast period considered (March 29th April 7th ) , all of the Italian regions will show a decreasing number of CoViD-19 positive people. Same for the number of people who will need to be hospitalized in a Intensive Care Unit (ICU). These estimates are valid under constancy of the Government s current containment policies. In this scenario, Northern Regions will remain the most affected ones and no significant outbreak are foreseen in the southern regions. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement The submitted paper has not been supported in any way. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All the data used in my paper can be freely accessed on the internet <https://www.iss.it/> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20047894v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| forecasting the COVID19.pdf | 344.08 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |