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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/107| Transmission Dynamics and Control Methodology of COVID-19: a Modeling Study | |
| Hongjun Zhu | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.29.20047118 | |
| The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has grown up to be a pandemic within a short span of time. To investigate transmission dynamics and then determine control methodology, we took epidemic in Wuhan as a study case. Unfortunately, to our best knowledge, the existing models are based on the common assumption that the total population follows a homogeneous spatial distribution, which is not the case for the prevalence occurred both in the community and in hospital due to the difference in the contact rate. To solve this problem, we propose a novel epidemic model called SEIR-HC, which is a novel epidemic model with two different social circles. Using the model alongside the exclusive optimization algorithm, the spread process of COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan city is reproduced and then the propagation characteristics and unknown data are estimated. Furthermore, the control measures implemented in Wuhan are assessed and the control methodology of COVID-19 is discussed to provide guidance for limiting the epidemic spread. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This work was supported by National social science foundation of China (16BXW005), Chongqing Basic Science and Frontier Research Project, China (No. cstc2017jcyjAX0007, cstc2017jcyjAX0386), Project Foundation of Chongqing Municipal Education Committee, China (Grant No. 17SKG050), and Sichuan Provincial Key laboratory of Robot Technology Used for Special Environment (Southwest University of Science and Technology), China (Grant No. 17kftk02). ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes (1) Notification on pneumonia of the new coronavirus infection reported by Wuhan health committee. 2020 [cited 2020 Mar 10]; Available from: http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020012009077. (2) Bulletin of hubei provincial health committee on pneumonia caused by novel coronavirus. 2020 Mar 10, 2020 [cited 2020 Mar 10]; Available from: http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/tzgg/202001/t20200121_2013873.shtml. (3) Quarantine of evacuees at march air reserve base ends. 2020 Feb 11, 2020 [cited 2020 Mar 10]; Available from: https://nbcpalmsprings.com/2020/02/11/quarantine-of-evacuees-at-march-air-reserve-base-ends/. (4) Two new cases of asymptomatic infection in Japan were the third group of people evacuated from wuhan to Japan. 2020 Feb 3, 2020 [cited 2020 Mar 10]; Available from: https://m.chinanews.com/wap/detail/zw/hm_rbxhqb/2020/02-03/hm56146.shtml. (5) Details: a seventh case of novel coronavirus infection has been confirmed in the republic of Korea. 2020 Jan 31, 2020 [cited 2020 Mar 10]; Available from: https://cn.yna.co.kr/view/ACK20200131002500881. (6) Past updates on COVID-19 local situation. 2020 Mar 10, 2020 [cited 2020 Mar 10]; Available from: https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19/past-updates. (7) Three departments: a number of measures to care for anti-epidemic frontline medical staff. 2020 Feb 15, 2020 [cited 2020 Mar 10]; Available from: http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2020-02/15/content_5479035.htm. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.29.20047118v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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