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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/102| How lethal is the novel coronavirus, and how many undetected cases there are? The importance of being tested. | |
| Ugo Bastolla | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.27.20045062 | |
| There is big concern for estimating the lethality and the extent of undetected infections associated with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV2 outbreak. While detailed epidemiological models are certainly needed, I suggest here an orthogonal approach based on a minimum number of parameters robustly fitted from the cumulative data easily accessible for all countries at the John Hopkins University database that became the worldwide reference for the pandemics. I show that, after few days from the beginning of the outbreak, the apparent death rate can be extrapolated to infinite time through regularized regression such as rescaled ridge regression. The variation from country to country of these extrapolated death rates appears to depend almost only (r^2=0.91) on the ratio between performed tests and detected cases even when the instantaneous apparent lethality rates are as different as 9% in Italy and 0.4% in Germany. Extrapolating to the limit of infinite number of tests, I obtain a death rate of 0.012+/- 0.012, in agreement with other estimates. The inverse relationship between the extrapolated death rate and the intensity tests allows estimating that more than 50% of cases were undetected in most countries, with more than 90% undetected cases in countries severely hit by the epidemics such as Italy. Finally, I propose to adopt the ratio between the cumulative number of recovered and deceased persons as an indicator that can anticipate the halting of the epidemics. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement UB is funded by the Spanish Research Council (CSIC) and the Spanish Science Ministery ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes The perl script used for analyzing the data is available upon request | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20045062v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| How letal is the novel coronavirus.pdf | 171.71 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |